运动纪录的演变:统计效应与实际改进相比
Daniel Gembris1, John G Taylor2, Dieter Suter3
1University of Heidelberg in Mannheim , Germany.
Journal of applied statistics
|May 31, 2024
概括
运动记录随着时间的推移而得到改善,但这项研究表明真正的性能增长仅在20-50%的学科中发生. 新的记录并不总是意味着更好的运动能力.
科学领域:
- 运动科学 运动科学 运动科学
- 生物物理学的生物物理.
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
背景情况:
- 运动记录一直在不断提高,创造了人类能力永恒进步的错觉.
- 评估新记录的重要性需要评估改进的程度,而不仅仅是记录本身.
研究的目的:
- 为了获得分析运动记录趋势的公式.
- 区分真正的绩效改进和体育记录中的统计文物.
- 应用记录估计来预测人类的生物极限.
主要方法:
- 开发数学公式来分析单调记录的改进.
- 分析德国锦标赛和世界田径纪录.
- 记录估计的应用在人体长度预测上.
主要成果:
- 公式表明,即使在持续的运动表现下,记录也可以得到改善.
- 在分析的体育学科中,在20-50%的体育学科中发现了真正的性能改善.
- 应用记录估计方法来预测人类最大身体长度.
结论:
- 运动记录的改善不仅仅是运动员能力的提升的迹象.
- 记录进步的很大一部分是基于统计而不是基于绩效的.
- 开发的方法提供了对性能趋势和生物限制的见解.
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