气候变化如何影响到2030年全球四种主要粮食作物的潜在产量?
Chengzhi Cai1, Linyu Lv1,2, Sha Wei1,2
1Economic Institute, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang, China.
PloS one
|May 31, 2024
概括
全球粮食安全依赖于主食作物. 2030年的预测显示,由于气候变化,大米,小麦,玉米和大豆的产量变化各不相同,对平均和最高产量的影响各不相同.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 食品安全研究 食品安全研究
背景情况:
- 全球粮食安全与主要粮食作物产量密切相关,特别是在气候变化的不断升级压力下.
- 现有的作物产量模型通常以地方或区域水平估计产量,而有限的全球预测全面整合了气候变化影响.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2030年全球大米,小麦,玉米和大豆的潜在产量.
- 分析气候变化自1961年以来对这些作物的产量 (全球平均温度和降水) 的个别影响.
- 为改善全球生产和在未来气候情景下确保粮食安全提供见解.
主要方法:
- 使用自动回归集成移动平均和趋势回归 (ARIMA-TR) 模型进行收益率预测,并使用灰色系统 (GS) 模型进行验证.
- 采用单元回归模型来评估全球平均温度和土地降水对作物产量的影响.
- 分析了近年来的实际收益率,以测试预测的可靠性.
主要成果:
- 到2030年预计产量变化:大米 (+50.6%),小麦 (+38.0%),玉米 (-14.7%) 和大豆 (+72.5%) 在平均和最高产量之间的比率方面.
- 全球变暖对大米产生负面影响,对小麦和玉米产生混合影响,对大豆平均产量产生积极影响,对最高产量产生不同的影响.
- 与1961年以来的全球变暖相比,全球降雨波动对作物生产的影响较小.
结论:
- 为了到2030年提高全球作物生产,投入优先级应集中在大米/小麦 (所有国家),玉米 (高产国) 和大豆 (低产国) 上.
- 研究结果为主食作物的可持续生产策略提供了创新的见解.
- 该研究为决策者提供了关键信息,以应对气候变化下的未来全球粮食安全挑战.
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