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在人为变暖下,印度的雨水极端的时间和空间聚合
Gopinadh Konda1, Jasti S Chowdary2, C Gnanaseelan2
1Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune, 411008, India. gopinadh.konda@tropmet.res.in.
Scientific reports
|May 31, 2024
概括
由于气候变化,印度的极端降雨事件预计将在遥远的未来显著增加面积和强度. 这包括更频繁的长期事件和印度洋海面温度的升温,需要适应政策.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 气象学 天气学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 印度正面临着极端降雨事件 (ERE) 引发的前所未有的洪水造成的越来越大的社会影响.
- 了解ERE的特征对于适应气候变化至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过结合模型对比项目第六阶段 (CMIP6) 数据,研究印度上空极端降雨事件 (ERE) 的特征.
- 在不同的排放场景下评估ERE的未来预测.
主要方法:
- 利用印度地区每日缩小和偏差校正 (DBC) CMIP6降雨量和海面温度 (SST) 数据.
- 分析了基准期的REE特征和SSP5-8.5和SSP2-4.5情景下的预测变化.
主要成果:
- DBC产品准确地捕捉了基线的ERE特征,印度约8%的土地经历了长期的ERE.
- 未来的预测显示,ERE面积将增加18%和58%的极端降雨门.
- 预计长期EREs将增加65%和印度洋SSTs将变暖2.4~2.9°C.
结论:
- 调查结果突出显示,在未来气候变化下,印度极端降雨事件显著加剧和扩大.
- 预计ERE的增加和相关的变暖需要积极的国家气候变化适应政策.
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