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北美北极的过渡性森林的转变将持续到2100年
Paul M Montesano1,2, Melanie Frost1,3, Jian Li1,3
1NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD USA.
概括
北极的扩大正在推动北美生物群的转变. 预计到2100年,无论气候情况如何,过渡性森林的树木和灌木数量都将增加.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
背景情况:
- 北极的扩大正在导致北极高度的显著变化.
- 度森林梯度表明树木和灌木的潜在增加.
- 这些变化的持续性取决于气候情景和森林结构.
研究的目的:
- 探索北极地区基于梯度的生物群转移的持续性.
- 为了将当前的森林模式与最近的树木覆盖趋势和未来的树冠高度估计联系起来.
- 在不同的气候情景下,预测到2100年生物群的变化.
主要方法:
- 分析横跨一个度梯度的现有森林模式.
- 检查最近的树木覆盖趋势.
- 建模未来的树冠高度估计到2100年.
- 在不同的气候场景中比较结果.
主要成果:
- 预测的潜在高度变化在北极森林到泰加-原生态土之间有所不同.
- 积极的高度变化集中在过渡性森林中,最近有积极的覆盖变化.
- 玻里亚森林高度变化潜力是高度可变的.
- 结果在所有气候场景中都是一致的,表明持续的生物群转变.
结论:
- 预计到2100年,北美地区将出现持续的生物群转移.
- 这种转变集中在过渡性森林景观中.
- 转变的方向和幅度在很大程度上独立于气候情景.
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