持久的缓解还是短暂的缓解? 比特币作为对冲和美国美元的避风港
Thomas Conlon1, Shaen Corbet2,3, Richard McGee1
1Smurfit Graduate School of Business, University College Dublin, Blackrock, Co. Dublin Ireland.
概括
比特币在短期内提供了对美元损失的一些保护,作为一个强大的对冲. 然而,在长期的极端市场下滑期间,它可能会增加风险,从而限制其避风港潜力.
科学领域:
- 金融经济学 金融经济学
- 量化金融 量化金融
- 加密货币市场 加密货币市场
背景情况:
- 投资者寻求在市场动荡期间减轻极端损失的资产.
- 了解比特币作为对冲和避风港的作用对美元至关重要,尤其是在COVID-19大流行等事件期间.
研究的目的:
- 调查比特币对美元的短期和长期对冲和避风港属性.
- 分析比特币在极端市场条件,包括COVID-19危机期间的表现.
主要方法:
- 在2010-2023年期间采用了视界依赖的计量经济学测试.
- 在各种市场条件下检查了比特币与美元货币对之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 比特币在所有审查的美元货币对中都表现出强大的对冲能力.
- 比特币在短期投资视野中充当了美元的软弱避风港.
- 在极端损失时期,比特币可能会增加长期的总体风险,而不是提供一个安全的避风港.
结论:
- 比特币为美元提供了一些降低风险的好处.
- 它从极端负面的美元走势中获得长期缓解的潜力有限.
- 比特币的作用从一个弱小的避风港转变为一个潜在的风险放大器在更长的投资视野.
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