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在气候不确定性下重新审视发展战略:马拉维的案例研究
Askar Mukashov1, Timothy Thomas1, James Thurlow1
1International Food Policy Research Institute, 1201 Eye St NW, Washington, DC 20005 USA.
概括
以农业为主导的发展战略对马拉维来说是最好的,在减少贫困和营养不良方面,其表现优于非农业战略,即使气候不确定性. 随机主导分析支持这一政策规划的发现.
科学领域:
- 发展经济学 发展经济学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 农业政策 农业政策
背景情况:
- 经济发展战略面临着气候引起的不确定性带来的重大挑战.
- 马拉维的经济特别容易受到天气和气候变化的影响.
- 评估发展战略需要强大的方法来处理不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 在气候不确定性下,比较马拉维以农业为主导的与非农业为主导的发展战略的有效性.
- 引入和应用随机主导 (SD) 分析来评估发展战略.
- 根据有关减少贫困和营养不良的政策决策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 随机主导 (SD) 分析的应用,一个决策分析工具.
- 两种不同的发展战略 (以农业为主导与非农业为主导) 的比较分析.
- 根据各种天气/气候相关的经济不确定性场景进行评估.
主要成果:
- 农业主导的发展始终在减少贫困和营养不良方面表现出优异的结果.
- 这种优势几乎适用于所有分析的天气和气候场景.
- 整个经济受到气候不确定性的影响并不能否定以农业为主导的方法的好处.
结论:
- 农业主导的发展是马拉维打击贫困和营养不良的最佳战略.
- 随机主导 (SD) 分析是将风险和不确定性纳入政策规划的一个有价值的工具.
- 该研究建议在决策环境中更广泛地采用SD分析.
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