登革热爆发的宏观经济影响:泰国和巴西的案例研究
Kinga Marczell1, Elvis García2, Julie Roiz3
1Evidera, Budapest, Hungary.
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
|June 3, 2024
概括
登革热疫情对国家经济产生重大影响,由于泰国旅游业的流失和巴西劳动力缺勤,国内生产总值 (GDP) 减少. 公共卫生干预对于减轻这些重大经济损失至关重要.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生经济学 公共卫生经济学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 宏观经济学 宏观经济学
背景情况:
- 登革热是一种日益严重的全球健康威胁,影响了世界一半的人口,其经济影响远远超出了直接医疗费用.
- 这项研究重点关注登革热在泰国和巴西的宏观经济影响,分别研究其对旅游业和劳动力的影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估登革热疫情对泰国和巴西国内生产总值 (GDP) 的影响.
- 从旅游收入和劳动力生产率的角度量化经济损失.
主要方法:
- 泰国:使用输入-输出模型估计旅游收入损失及其对GDP的直接,间接和诱导影响.
- 巴西:一个失效输出输出模型评估了由于登革热导致的劳动力缺勤对GDP的影响,使用了流行病学和经济数据.
- 两项分析都使用了2019年的数据来量化经济影响.
主要成果:
- 在泰国,2019年登革热爆发导致GDP减少约181亿美元 (占GDP的0.33%),主要是由于旅游业收入损失.
- 在巴西,与登革热相关的劳动力缺勤导致估计损失了2240万个工作日,GDP减少了8.76亿美元 (0.05%).
- 巴西失去工作日的很大一部分 (39%) 归因于非正规部门.
结论:
- 登革热疫情给国家带来了巨大的经济成本,超过了直接的医疗费用,大大减少了整体GDP.
- 登革热的经济负担凸显了公平的挑战,特别是对于非正式就业和有限的护理机会的人群.
- 建议采取综合公共卫生战略,包括媒介控制和疫苗接种,以减轻登革热的更广泛的经济后果.
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