在科罗拉多州调查极端天气和密码和病之间的关系:使用分布式滞后非线性模型进行了长达数十年的研究
Elise N Grover1, James L Crooks2, Elizabeth J Carlton1
1Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, USA.
概括
极端天气影响寄生虫疾病. 高温增加了密码菌病的风险,但降低了菌病的风险,而极端的降水则同样影响了两者,往往有很长的延迟.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 寄生病生态学 寄生病生态学
背景情况:
- 环境介导的原生动物疾病,如密度菌病和巨病,对气候变化敏感.
- 极端天气事件,包括温度和降水波动,可以影响疾病的生存,分布和传播动态.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查极端温度和降水以及科罗拉多州密度菌病和菌病的发病率之间的联系.
- 通过使用县级数据,在21年内分析这些关系.
主要方法:
- 利用了每月的天气数据 (Daymet V3) 和病例报告 (科罗拉多州电子疾病报告系统,CEDRS) 从1997年至2017年.
- 采用有条件的Poisson分布式滞后非线性建模方法来评估极端天气和疾病风险之间的滞后关联 (0-12个月).
主要成果:
- 极高的高温 (第90至95百分位数) 显著增加了密码菌病的风险,但降低了菌病的风险.
- 两种疾病的降水极端表现出相似的关系,具有显著的长期滞后 (> 8 个月).
结论:
- 极端天气事件对密码菌病和巨病的传播有明显的影响.
- 目前的流行病学滞后期可能不足以捕捉极端天气对这些寄生虫疾病的全部影响.
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