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用三种CMIP6模型的整体平均值,对爱德华王子岛的温度相关指数的未来预测
Junaid Maqsood1, Xiuquan Wang2,3, Aitazaz A Farooque4,5,6
1Applied Research Department, Holland College, Charlottetown, PE, C1A 4Z1, Canada.
Scientific reports
|June 3, 2024
概括
气候变化正在影响爱德华王子岛.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
背景情况:
- 爱德华王子岛 (PEI) 的农业很容易受到气候变化的影响.
- 准确的温度预测对于适应和减缓战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在PEI上使用CMIP6 GCMs开发温度极端的总体预测.
- 分析不同气候场景下的每日极端温度和相关指数的未来变化.
主要方法:
- 利用ECMWF ERA5再分析数据进行逐步集群分析 (SCA).
- 采用了三个CMIP6 GCM (NorESM2-MM,MPI-ESM1.2-HR,CanESM5) 和它们的整体平均值.
- 在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下分析了两个未来时期 (FP1,FP2) 的极端温度 (Tmax,Tmin) 和指数 (DTR,SU,GDD,GSL,ID,FD).
主要成果:
- 预计每日温度范围 (DTR),夏日日 (SU),生长度日 (GDD) 和生长季节长度 (GSL) 的增加.
- 冰天 (ID) 和天 (FD) 的预计减少.
- 在SSP5-8.5情景下,在FP2中观察到的最大变化,表明未来更温暖,极端寒冷更强烈.
结论:
- 在PEI的未来气候将变暖,对农业和水资源产生重大影响.
- 需要适应策略来应对温度极端的增加和生长条件的改变.
- 这些发现支持对PEI气候变化影响进行有效的减缓计划.
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