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确定影响普通掠食的风险区和景观特征
Thakur Silwal1,2, Bijaya Neupane2,3, Nirjala Raut2
1Tribhuvan University, Institute of Forestry, Kathmandu, Nepal.
PeerJ
|June 4, 2024
概括
研究了人类与野生动物之间的冲突,特别是尼泊尔的人与普通之间的冲突 (HLC),以确定高风险区域. 距离水,道路和海拔是预测袭击风险的关键因素,为缓解策略提供了信息.
科学领域:
- 野生动物生态学野生动物生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 人类与野生动物的相互作用
背景情况:
- 人类与野生动物之间的冲突 (HWC) 是一个全球性的挑战,在尼泊尔的中山地区,人与普通之间的冲突 (HLC) 是显著的.
- 戈尔卡地区的HLC数据有限,需要研究以确定高风险地区并影响景观变量.
研究的目的:
- 在戈尔卡地区绘制普通袭击风险区的地图.
- 确定与HLC事件相关的关键环境变量.
- 为HLC.提供有针对性的保护和缓解策略的信息.
主要方法:
- 从2019-2021年收集和审查注册的HLC病例.
- 与牧民和村民进行了焦点小组讨论,以验证记录.
- 使用163个攻击位置和13个环境变量的最大 (MaxEnt) 建模.
- 使用真实技能统计 (TSS) 和接收器-操作器曲线下的面积 (AUC) 评估模型准确性.
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型表现出很好的准确性 (AUC = 0.726 ± 0.021,TSS = 0.61 ± 0.03).
- 大约7%的研究区域被确定为高风险的HLC.
- 距离水 (25.2%),距离道路 (16.2%) 和高度 (10.7%) 是最重要的风险预测因素.
- 最高的风险发生在距离水源1.5至2公里,道路附近,以及海拔700至800米处.
结论:
- 调查结果强调,需要在高风险地区立即采取干预策略,以保护农村生计.
- 建议包括改善畜牧设计,保险和赔偿计划.
- 为加强管理实践,建议对受害者特征以及景观变量进行进一步的研究.
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