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Guang-Yun Li^1,2, Yuchuang Li^1,2, Huai Liu^1,2

¹Key Laboratory of Entomology and Pest Control Engineering, College of Plant Protection, Southwest University, Chongqing, China.

Pest management science

|June 5, 2024

概括

虫害虫的捕食者Phytoseiulus persimilis具有适合的全球分布,受温度和降水的影响. 气候变化可能会稍微增加其适合的息地,有利于东南中国和地中海等地区.

科学领域:

农业昆虫学农业昆虫学
生物控制生物控制
气候变化影响评估气候变化影响评估

背景情况:

植物 (Phytoseiulus persimilis) 是农业害虫Tetranychus urticae和Tetranychus evansi.的主要生物控制剂.
目前的生物控制工作受到缺乏关于气候变化如何影响P. persimilis分布的数据的阻碍.
了解其全球分布对于有效的害虫管理至关重要.

研究的目的:

为了调查Phytoseiulus persimilis的潜在全球分布.
确定影响其分布的关键生物气候变量.
在未来的气候情景下预测适合息地的变化.

主要方法:

利用了P. persimilis.的276个发生记录.
用了19个生物气候变量进行分析.
应用最大 (MaxEnt) 模型进行分布建模.

主要成果:

马克森特模型表现出高精度 (AUC = 0.956).
最冷月份的最低温度 (Bio_6) 和最冷季度的降水 (Bio_19) 是最有影响力的变量.
适合息地目前覆盖全球陆地面积的21.67% (60°S至60°N).

结论:

确定了P. persimilis气候有利的地区,包括中国东南部和地中海沿海地区.
为优化经典生物控制程序提供关键数据.
建议在高排放场景下 (SSP 5-8.5) 到2050年代可能增加1.31%的适合息地.

关键词:

生物气候变量生物气候变量生物控制生物控制气候变化气候变化气候变化掠食性虫的虫掠食性虫的虫适合的分布区域适合的分布区域.

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