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在大气放射性准备模型中对粒子干沉积参数化的研究:应用于切尔诺贝利事件

Erik Berge¹, Magnus Ulimoen¹, Andreas Dobler¹

¹The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway.

Journal of hazardous materials

|June 5, 2024

概括

在重核事故计划 (SNAP) 中用爱默生或欧洲监测和评估计划 (EMEP) 的方案取代简单的干沉积模型,可以改善放射性颗粒运输预测. 这项研究使用切尔诺贝利137Cs沉积数据评估了新的计划.

科学领域:

大气科学大气科学
环境科学环境科学
核安全问题核安全问题

背景情况:

干沉积的准确参数化对于放射性颗粒的大气运输和沉积建模至关重要.
目前的放射性准备模型,如重核事故计划 (SNAP),经常使用简化的干沉积速度,忽视重要的电阻.
这种简化可能会影响放射性物质分散的预测的准确性.

研究的目的:

评估实施新的干沉积方案 (艾默生和EMEP) 的好处,其中包括SNAP模型中的空气动力学和表面电阻.
将原始SNAP干沉积计划的预测能力与新实施的艾默生和EMEP计划进行比较.
评估改进的干沉积参数化对放射性颗粒大气运输建模的影响.

主要方法:

在SNAP模型中实施了两个新的干沉积计划,即Emerson和EMEP计划.
使用了高分辨率气象数据 (2.5公里) 和详细的土地使用数据集 (273个子类).
采用了对切尔诺贝利事故的全面来源术语描述,并使用540个土壤样本测量137Cs总沉积在切尔诺贝利核电站半径60公里内的137Cs总沉积量来评估模型.

主要成果:

该研究发现,与最初的SNAP计划相比,Emerson和EMEP干沉积计划提供了更好的预测能力.
整合空气动力学和表面电阻显著提高了对放射性颗粒沉积的建模准确度.
评估使用了广泛的土壤样本数据和详细的切尔诺贝利事故数据,提供了可靠的验证.

结论:

建议将SNAP模型中的当前简化干沉积方案替换为爱默生或EMEP方案.
干沉积的增强参数化导致放射性准备模型中更可靠的预测.
这一改进对于更好地了解和管理核事故后果至关重要.

关键词:

大气分散模型的大气分散模型.切尔诺贝利切尔诺贝利干燥沉积方式干燥沉积方式准备度建模的准备度建模放射性颗粒是放射性颗粒中的一个.

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