全球和区域心血管死亡率与时间的非最佳温度有关
Samuel Hundessa1, Wenzhong Huang1, Qi Zhao2
1Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Journal of the American College of Cardiology
|June 5, 2024
概括
在全球范围内,非最佳温度导致了显著的心血管死亡,而低温是主要的驱动因素. 然而,与高温相关的死亡人数正在增加,迫切需要采取气候变化适应战略.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 心血管流行病学心血管流行病学
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- 非最佳温度与心血管死亡率有关,但缺乏全球评估.
- 了解这种负担对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
- 之前的研究还没有全面评估全球因温度变化而导致的心血管死亡的情况.
研究的目的:
- 量化归因于非最佳温度的心血管死亡的全球负担.
- 调查温度相关心血管死亡的时空趋势.
- 在全球范围内区分与寒冷有关的和与热有关的心血管死亡率.
主要方法:
- 利用来自32个国家的日常心血管死亡和温度数据.
- 采用了三阶段的方法:估计特定位置的温度-死亡率关联,开发元回归模型,并按全球网格计算死亡人数.
- 在55公里分辨率下分析了2000年至2019年的时间趋势.
主要成果:
- 在全球范围内,每年约有180万例心血管死亡 (占总数的8.86%) 与非最佳温度有关.
- 与寒冷相关的死亡 (8.20%) 显著超过与热有关的死亡 (0.66%).
- 死亡负担因地区而异,中亚和东欧受影响最大;与寒冷相关的死亡人数下降,而与热量相关的死亡人数在2000-2019年期间增加.
结论:
- 不理想的温度代表着一个相当大的全球心血管死亡负担,带有多样化的时空模式.
- 缓解和适应战略至关重要,特别是应对气候变化导致的与热有关的心血管死亡人数上升.
- 区域差异凸显了针对极端温度的定制公共卫生反应的需要.
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