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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
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对暴露和风险解释的多危险景观的开发:PRISM方法
Kyle D Buck1, J Kevin Summers1, Stephen Hafner1
1United States Environmental Protection Agency, Gulf Ecology Division, 1 Sabine Island Drive, Gulf Breeze, FL 32561.
概括
本研究引入了一种使用土地面积和土地利用权重的新多危险风险评估方法. 它揭示了对自然系统的高风险,特别是在美国西部,为社区弹性规划提供了信息.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 风险评估 风险评估
- 地理空间分析的研究.
背景情况:
- 传统的多种危险风险评估侧重于小规模,限制了更广泛的适用性.
- 现有的方法难以应对各种危险类型和大地理区域.
- 货币损失计算可能会影响城市化地区的风险评估.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种适用于更大规模的多种危险风险评估的新方法.
- 将多种危险类型和土地利用影响纳入统一的风险指数.
- 为社区层面的减轻灾害和恢复能力的决策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 通过将多种危险和损失结合起来,开发了一个风险指数.
- 评估暴露率作为土地面积的比例,用于综合危险计算.
- 在县级按土地使用类型 (建筑,双重效益,自然) 进行权重风险计算.
主要成果:
- 确定了一个风险景观,对自然系统的暴露很高.
- 美国西部显示了多重危险风险的显著集中.
- 分析揭示了由土地使用和时间因素影响的动态风险景观.
结论:
- 开发的方法提供了对土地影响的更详细的分析,减少了城市偏差.
- 风险指数提供了一个动态的视图多危险的时间和空间的暴露.
- 这种方法支持社区根据当地危险概况做出明智的决策.
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