闪电引发的NaTech:从工艺工业的过去事件中获得新的见解
David Javier Castro Rodriguez1, Joseph Mietkiewicz2, Morena Vitale1
1Department of Applied Science and Technology, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca Degli Abruzzi 24, 10129, Torino, Italy.
Heliyon
|June 6, 2024
概括
雷击经常导致工业事故,特别是在春季和夏季,导致严重的安全和环境影响. 本研究分析了过去的事件,以提高工业资产对闪电引起的技术中断的脆弱性意识.
科学领域:
- 工业安全和风险管理
- 气象事件分析 气象事件分析
- 工艺安全工程 工艺安全工程
背景情况:
- 雷击是自然灾害引发过程工业技术 (NaTech) 事件的重要原因.
- 现有的数据库往往缺乏关于闪电引起的NaTech事件的详细信息,这阻碍了全面的分析.
- 了解这些事件对于减轻化学,石化和储存行业的风险至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 编制和分析一套关于闪电触发的纳科技事件的新型数据集.
- 识别季节性模式,脆弱部门和常见的技术场景.
- 开发改进的模型来评估工业资产对闪电袭击的脆弱性.
主要方法:
- 从开源工业事故数据库中编制689个闪电触发的NaTech事件的数据集.
- 对事件频率,季节性,受影响部门和设备的定量分析.
- 使用精细的数据子集,对技术场景 (火灾,控制失效) 的描述.
- 事件树分析和贝叶斯网络建模以了解因果路径和条件概率.
- 应用算法来将模型从准确的数据子集推广到整个数据集.
主要成果:
- 超过80%的事件涉及事件或控制失效,主要发生在春季和夏季 (83.3%).
- 化学和石化行业以及储存设施是最脆弱的.
- 储存设备 (40%) 和电气设备 (21%) 经常受到影响;火灾情景占主导地位 (56%).
- 闪电触发的 NaTech 事件具有重大安全和环境后果.
- 开发的模型改善了对不可分类数据的理解,提高了脆弱性意识.
结论:
- 雷击对工业基础设施构成重大风险,特别是在温暖的月份.
- 以数据为导向的方法,包括先进的建模,对于理解和减轻纳科技风险至关重要.
- 提高对工业资产对闪电脆弱性的认识,对于防止未来的事件至关重要.
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