应对规则是为了保持社会稳定,在明朝面对气候变化时保持社会稳定
Xudong Chen1,2, Fangyu Tian1,2, Le Tao1,2
1Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Heliyon
|June 6, 2024
概括
历史气候变化对明朝社会产生了重大影响. 由强大的社会经济和治理驱动的高社会强度和弹性,缓冲了严重的干旱,而低弹性在较弱的干旱期间加剧了影响.
科学领域:
- 历史气候学 历史气候学
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
- 弹性研究 弹性研究
背景情况:
- 气候变化在历史上影响了人类社会,为当代气候政策提供了洞察力.
- 了解社会对气候威胁的反应对于建立区域气候弹性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 构建一个稳定性-坚固性-弹性模型 (SSR模型) 来评估历史社会对气候变化的反应.
- 分析明朝社会在气候威胁下的强度,弹性和稳定性.
- 根据不同的社会性水平,比较三次极端干旱对社会的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发并应用了稳定性-坚固性-弹性模型 (SSR模型).
- 使用TOPSIS (通过与理想解决方案相似的订单偏好技术) 方法.
- 在数据分析中采用重法.
- 三个不同的干旱事件对社会影响的比较.
主要成果:
- 明朝社会在永利-洪时期 (公元1402年至1505年) 展现出高度的稳定性,这是由于其高强度和弹性.
- 在天顺 (公元1457年至1464年) 和德崇 (公元1506年至1644年) 时期,社会稳定性下降,在龙清万里 (公元1506年至1620年) 时期出现了短暂的复苏.
- 高稳定性与社会经济因素,政府财政,粮食储备和治理有关;不稳定性源于战争和经济状况下降.
- 在社会强度高的时期 (成华,万立) 发生的干旱影响很小,而在社会强度/弹性低的时期 (嘉兴) 发生的干旱,尽管气象异常较弱,但造成严重后果.
结论:
- 社会的强度和弹性是应对气候威胁的稳定性的关键决定因素.
- 社会经济实力和有效的治理增强了社会抵御气候冲击的能力.
- 对社会弹性的历史分析为制定适应性气候政策提供了有价值的背景.
相关概念视频
01:16What is Climate?
18.4K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.4K
01:50Global Climate Change
24.3K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.3K
02:45Responses to Heat and Cold Stress
13.4K
Every organism has an optimum temperature range within which healthy growth and physiological functioning can occur. At the ends of this range, there will be a minimum and maximum temperature that interrupt biological processes.
13.4K
02:41Responses to Drought and Flooding
10.7K
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
10.7K
01:50Threats to Biodiversity
22.2K
There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
22.2K
01:21Masonry in Cold and Hot Weather Conditions
83
In cold weather, masonry construction requires specific precautions to ensure mortar does not freeze before curing, as this can significantly weaken its strength and watertightness. Mortar temperature should be maintained between 60°F and 80°F to support proper hydration and curing. Below 40°F, mortar water must be heated, but should not exceed 120°F as high temperatures can reduce mortar's compressive and bond strength.
Other key practices include keeping masonry units...
Other key practices include keeping masonry units...
83