禽流感: 钟声为谁响起?
O P Zhirnov1,2, D K Lvov1
1The D.I. Ivaovsky Institute of Virology, The N.F. Gamaleya Research Center of Epidemiology and Microbiology, The Russian Ministry of Health.
Voprosy virusologii
|June 6, 2024
概括
高毒的H5N1禽流感正在全球范围内在鸟类和哺乳动物中传播,显示出适应的迹象. 这构成了人类传播的重大威胁,并可能带来灾难性的后果.
科学领域:
- 病毒学 病毒学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 甲状病毒家族包括禽流感病毒,H5和H7亚型的高毒性 (HPAI) 已知,导致家禽的显著死亡率.
- 一个多世纪前发现的高毒性禽流感病毒H5在全球范围内引起了广泛的鸟类疫情,人类病例有限.
- 最近在鸟类中出现的H5N1疫情 (clade h2.3.4.4b) 正在增加,并明显传播给各种哺乳动物物种.
研究的目的:
- 分析当前高毒性H5N1禽流感的全球传播情况.
- 调查哺乳动物传播增加和人类潜在适应的影响.
- 评估H5N1禽流感所带来的流行病威胁.
主要方法:
- 全球禽流感监测数据的审查.
- 从鸟类和哺乳动物中分离出来的H5N1菌株的遗传序列分析.
- 跨物种传播事件的流行病学评估.
主要成果:
- 全球H5N1禽流感疫情已导致近10亿只鸟类死亡.
- 在各种哺乳动物物种中观察到的死亡率增加事件,包括海,海狮,明克和猫.
- 来自哺乳动物的H5N1菌株表现出遗传标记 (PB2,NP,HA,NA基因),表明部分适应人类传播.
结论:
- 目前的H5N1禽流感形势对全球健康构成重大威胁.
- 哺乳动物可以作为病毒适应的关键中间宿主,增加人类溢出风险.
- 预先适应的H5N1菌株过渡到人类可能会导致灾难性的流行病后果.
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