分析农村宽带采用动态:一个理论驱动的基于代理的模型模型
Ankit Agarwal1, Casey Canfield1
1Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, Missouri University of Science and Technology, Rolla, Missouri, United States of America.
本研究引入了一个基于代理的模型来预测住宅宽带采用,考虑消费者行为和市场因素. 该模型显示,更高的采用率与更多的现有用户和更低的价格相关,有助于减少数字沟的努力.
科学领域:
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 电信政策 电信政策 电信政策
背景情况:
- 宽带互联网需求超过可用性,由COVID-19流行病加剧.
- 联邦和州的资金旨在扩大无服务/服务不足地区的宽带基础设施.
- 预测消费者采用和制定有效的战略对于最大限度地扩大宽带部署至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个基于代理的模型来模拟住宅宽带采用.
- 为决策者和互联网服务提供商 (ISP) 提供预测采用率的工具.
- 为提高高速互联网采用率和缩小数字沟的战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用基于计划行为理论的基于代理的模型.
- 基于市场竞争,服务属性和消费者特征的模拟消费者决策.
- 在密苏里州进行了使用案例,以展示该模型的预测能力.
主要成果:
- 宽带采用 (采用率) 随着现有互联网用户密度的增加而增加.
- 较低的宽带价格与采用率的增加有关.
- 模拟结果有效地预测了研究区域的宽带采用情况.
结论:
- 基于代理的建模为理解和预测宽带采用提供了有价值的工具.
- 模拟洞察力可以指导对宽带基础设施和数字素养计划的投资.
- 该模型可以支持设计有针对性的市场补贴,以弥合数字沟.
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