热带气旋降雨足迹的全球扩张
Lianjie Qin1, Laiyin Zhu2, Baoyin Liu3
1School of Safety Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Nature communications
|June 6, 2024
概括
热带气旋 (TC) 的暴雨正在扩大其影响范围. 这项研究发现,强烈的TC雨的足迹在全球范围内越来越大,影响更多地区并增加洪水风险.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
背景情况:
- 热带气旋 (Tropical Cyclone, TC) 由于大量降雨,导致内陆地区发生严重的洪水.
- 气候变暖正在加剧TC降水,但空间模式的变化仍然不清楚.
- 了解大雨分布对于灾难准备至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究强烈热带气旋降雨的空间模式的变化.
- 定义和分析一个代表大雨足迹的指标.
- 确定影响大降水分布的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 定义DIST30:大降雨细胞 (>30mm/3h) 与TC中心的平均辐射距离.
- 分析了全球TC数据以评估DIST30趋势.
- 采用XGBoost机器学习模型来确定控制因素.
主要成果:
- 在0.34公里/年时,观察到DIST30的全球显著增加.
- 扩大的DIST30覆盖了近60%的TC冲击区,特别是在西北太平洋,北大西洋和南太平洋.
- TC最大风速,位置,海面温度,垂直风剪和水蒸气含量是DIST30变化的关键驱动因素.
结论:
- 强烈的热带气旋降雨的足迹正在全球范围内扩大.
- 北半球的TC向北极迁移对DIST30中观察到的上升趋势作出了重大贡献.
- 调查结果强调需要重新评估与加剧和空间扩大TC降雨相关的洪水风险.
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