在ESD后延迟出血的风险预测模型,用于胃癌前病变
Yiying Zhu1, Mengyao Ji1,2, Lei Yuan3,4,2
1Department of Gastroenterology, Wuhan University Renmin Hospital, Wuhan, 430060, Hubei, China.
这项研究确定了胃癌前病变内镜下粘膜切割 (ESD) 后延迟出血的关键风险因素. 一个XGBoost模型准确地预测ESD后出血风险,有助于临床决策.
科学领域:
- 胃肠病学 胃肠病学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 内镜下粘膜切割 (ESD) 是胃癌前病变的关键治疗方法.
- 术后出血延迟是ESD后的一个重要并发症.
- 预测这种并发症对于患者管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在胃癌前病变中确定ESD后延迟术后出血的危险因素.
- 开发和验证ESD后出血的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 针对胃癌前病变进行ESD的患者数据的回顾性分析.
- 利用XGBoost模型进行风险预测,通过后勤回归来获取信息.
- 模型性能使用ROC曲线和SHAP分析进行评估.
主要成果:
- 确定了七个因素:年龄,低度内皮质瘤,高血压,大病变大小 (≥40毫米),长时间的手术时间 (≥120分钟),女性性别,以及不使用血栓.
- 开发的XGBoost模型在培训,验证和测试队列中显示出高的预测准确性 (AUC范围为0.94-0.97).
结论:
- 一个基于XGBoost的预测模型,用于在胃癌前病变中延迟ESD后出血,已成功开发和验证.
- 该模型为临床医生提供了一种有价值的工具,以评估个体患者的出血风险.
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