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在项目组合中选择外部利益相关者的风险应对策略
Libiao Bai1, Shuyun Kang1, Fang Li1
1School of Economics and Management, Chang' an Univ, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710064, China.
Heliyon
|June 7, 2024
概括
项目组合 (PP) 中对外部利益相关者风险 (ESR) 的有效管理需要整个组合的战略. 本研究介绍了一种使用贝叶斯影响图和优化的模型,以选择最佳的风险应对组合,提高结果和降低成本.
科学领域:
- 项目管理 项目管理
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 项目组合 (PP) 中对外部利益相关者风险 (ESR) 的有效管理至关重要,但由于对应对策略的研究不足,具有挑战性.
- 当前的方法往往没有考虑在一个投资组合的背景下ESR,项目和响应策略之间的复杂相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个模型来选择最佳组合的响应策略ESR在PPs.
- 通过考虑风险,项目和应对策略之间的相互依赖,解决当前研究的局限性.
主要方法:
- 使用贝叶斯影响图 (BID) 与多目标优化模型相结合.
- 建立了一个概率-灵敏度矩阵来识别关键的ESR.
- 使用BID计算响应策略组合的预期值.
- 将利益相关者的满意度和战略成本整合到候选战略选择的优化模型中.
主要成果:
- 提出的模型成功地确定了关键的ESR,并评估了各种应对策略组合.
- 它提供了一种系统的方法来选择最佳的战略组合,通过平衡预期价值与利益相关者的满意度和成本.
- 该模型展示了对风险,项目和响应之间的相互作用的全面考虑.
结论:
- 集成的BID和优化模型提供了一个强大的框架,用于加强PP中ESR管理.
- 这种方法提高了项目成果的可取性,并有助于降低项目执行成本.
- 它为整个投资组合的风险应对策略选择提供了一种新的方法.
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