国会对称:余下的岁月 镜子 曾在美国众议院和参议院任职的岁月
James R Carey1,2, Brinsley Eriksen3, Arni S R Srinivasa Rao4,5
1Department of Entomology, University of California, Davis 95616, USA.
Genus
|June 7, 2024
概括
静止人口身份 (SPI) 定理使用美国国会数据进行了验证,揭示了服务和剩余年龄的强大的对称性. 这证实了模型的存在.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
背景情况:
- 真正的人口静止在生物和人类种群中是罕见的.
- 静止人口身份 (SPI) 是一种用于替代水平人口的数学模型.
- 美国国会会员资格数据为静止人口提供了一个代理,因为固定数字.
研究的目的:
- 测试和识别静止人口身份 (SPI) 定理的应用.
- 分析服役年数与美国国会剩余年数的对称性.
- 探索SPI对其他静止或准静止种群的概括性.
主要方法:
- 利用了美国国会历史会员数据 (1789-2022年).
- 将国会的固定体型视为静止的人口.
- 分析了服役的年份和剩余的年份,与生活的寿命和剩余的寿命相似.
主要成果:
- 证实了SPI关于在国会任职年数和剩余年数之间存在强大的对称性的预测.
- 证明了包括新指标在内的应用 (例如,国会半衰期,95%的营业额).
- 展示了会员任期分配的可预测性,以及从平均服务年数推导出人口统计率.
结论:
- SPI定理得到了美国国会数据的强有力的支持.
- 该研究为人口动态引入了新的指标和预测能力.
- 这些发现适用于静止种群,包括那些面临零人口增长 (ZPG) 的种群.
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