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使用PLUS模型的多场景模拟预测未来30年的土地使用情况,在中国贵州省
Juncong Liu1, Bangyu Liu2, Linjing Wu1
1College of Eco-Environment Engineering, Engineering Research Center of Green and Low-Carbon Technology for Plastic Application, Guizhou Minzu University, Guiyang, 550025, China.
Scientific reports
|June 7, 2024
概括
使用PLUS模型在贵州省进行的土地利用模拟显示,农田保护最能支持可持续发展. 这项研究为未来的土地资源规划和城市发展提供了宝贵的参考.
科学领域:
- 生态与环境科学 生态与环境科学
- 地理信息科学 地理信息科学
- 城市和区域规划 城市和区域规划
背景情况:
- 土地利用变化对生态系统结构和功能产生重大影响.
- 需要有效的经济和政策工具来管理土地利用中的利益相关者冲突.
- 合理规划和土地资源的可持续发展是关键目标.
研究的目的:
- 使用PLUS模型模拟未来30年内贵州省的土地使用分布.
- 分析土地扩张的驱动因素,并在补丁级预测景观演变.
- 为了比较四种不同的土地使用场景 (自然发展,城市发展,生态保护,农田保护) 的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用PLUS (人口土地使用变化模拟) 模型,整合基于规则的挖矿方法和蜂自动机 (CA) 模型.
- 根据贵州省 (2000年,2010年,2020年) 的数据,从地理,交通和社会经济方面选择了16个驱动因素.
- 建立并模拟了四种不同的土地利用变化场景,以评估未来的土地利用模式.
主要成果:
- 在土地利用模拟中,PLUS模型实现了高精度,总精度为0.983,Kappa为0.972,FoM为0.509.
- 模拟显示,在接下来的30年内,在四个场景中的每一个场景下,有明显的土地利用变化.
- 农田保护方案被认为是最符合贵州省可持续发展目标的方案.
结论:
- 普拉斯模型是贵州省土地利用模拟和分析的可靠工具.
- 土地利用规划场景显著影响未来的土地利用模式.
- 农田保护场景为可持续发展提供了一条道路,在贵州平衡经济增长与生态保护.
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