在中国未来气候变化下对比四种森林基础物种的范围变化和驱动因素
Weixue Luo1, Chengxiang Sun2, Shuo Yang2
1Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China; Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Southwest University, Chongqing, China.
The Science of the total environment
|June 8, 2024
概括
由于气候变化,中国的森林基础物种正在发生转变. 温度和降水是关键驱动因素,影响物种分布,需要适应性保护策略.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 森林基础物种对于生态系统的结构和功能至关重要.
- 了解它们的当前分布和未来对中国气候变化的反应对于可持续性至关重要.
- 以前的研究还没有完全澄清这些关键物种的息地范围和气候驱动的变化.
研究的目的:
- 评估中国四种主要森林基础物种的现有息地范围和未来的范围变化.
- 确定影响这些物种分布的主要环境驱动因素.
- 为气候变化下的保护和可持续森林管理提供见解.
主要方法:
- 利用最佳的MaxEnt模型进行物种分布建模.
- 使用AUC值评估模型性能,实现出色的预测准确度 (>0.90).
- 在各种气候场景下分析了当前分布和预测未来范围的变化.
主要成果:
- 目前的分布:Acer tegmentosum和Acer pseudo-sieboldianum在温带地区 (中国东北部);Quercus glandulifera在亚热带地区 (中国东南部);Ficus hispida在热带地区 (中国南南部).
- 主要气候驱动因素:温度显著影响所有物种;降水影响温带物种;海拔影响亚热带和热带物种.
- 未来预测:温带物种的范围向南扩大;F.hispida向北扩大;Q.glandulifera在中央收缩.
结论:
- 气候变化,特别是温度,是重塑中国森林基础物种范围的主要因素.
- 不同的物种对气候变化表现出不同的反应,需要量身定制的保护方法.
- 结果为有效的保护规划和可持续森林管理提供了关键数据,以应对气候变化.
相关概念视频
What is Climate?
18.4K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.4K
Threats to Biodiversity
22.2K
There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
22.2K
Global Climate Change
24.3K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.3K
Habitat Fragmentation
17.5K
Habitat fragmentation describes the division of a more extensive, continuous habitat into smaller, discontinuous areas. Human activities such as land conversion, as well as slower geological processes leading to changes in the physical environment, are the two leading causes of habitat fragmentation. The fragmentation process typically follows the same steps: perforation, dissection, fragmentation, shrinkage, and attrition.
17.5K
Responses to Drought and Flooding
10.7K
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
10.7K
Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss
25.5K
Though evaporation from plant leaves drives transpiration, it also results in loss of water. Because water is critical for photosynthetic reactions and other cellular processes, evolutionary pressures on plants in different environments have driven the acquisition of adaptations that reduce water loss.
25.5K


