通过不断估计单个时间模式实例的完成情况来预测事件
Nevo Itzhak1, Szymon Jaroszewicz2, Robert Moskovitch1
1Software and Information Systems Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel.
Journal of biomedical informatics
|June 9, 2024
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的连续预测方法,使用时间模式预测事件. 该方法在现有模型中显示了5%的AUROC改进,提高了实时事件预测能力.
科学领域:
- 机器学习 机器学习
- 时间序列分析时间序列分析
- 预测建模预测建模
背景情况:
- 在时间数据中持续预测是具有挑战性的.
- 现有的方法与异质的多变量时间序列作斗争.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的连续预测方法.
- 使用单个时间模式,以一个感兴趣的事件结束.
- 提高预测的准确性和及时性.
主要方法:
- 使用时间抽象来创建象征时间间隔 (STI).
- 引入了时间间隔相关的模式 (TIRP) 用于事件预测.
- 在事件发生前的模式上训练模型,以预测事件发生和时间.
主要成果:
- 在接收器运行特征曲线 (AUROC) 下面面积的平均5%的改善.
- 性能优于基线模型,包括LSTM-FCN,RawXGB,Resnet和ROCKET.
- 在现实生活中的异质多变量时间数据集上验证.
结论:
- 拟议的方法为持续的实时事件预测提供了一个强大的工具.
- 适用于具有复杂时间数据的多个领域.
- 潜在的应用包括早期预测恐慌发作和ICU患者并发症.
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