随机变化点非线性混合效应模型用于左边审查的纵向数据:对艾滋病毒监测的应用
Binod Manandhar1, Hongbin Zhang1
1City University of New York, Graduate School of Public Health, 55 W 125th St,New York, NY 10027.
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的统计模型,用于识别纵向数据中的未知变化点. 该方法准确估计事件发生后的个体趋势,以HIV病毒载量数据为例.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 纵向数据分析 纵向数据分析
背景情况:
- 变化点模型对于分析纵向数据以检测趋势变化至关重要.
- 确定变化的确切时间是具有挑战性的,特别是人口数据中未知的变化点.
- 现有的模型经常与非线性趋势和左翼审查的观察作斗争.
研究的目的:
- 为纵向数据开发和验证一个未知的变化点模型.
- 为了适应变化点之前和之后的线性和非线性混合效应.
- 在随机变化点非线性混合效应框架内处理左边审查数据.
主要方法:
- 使用了随机近似期望最大化 (SAEM) 算法.
- 包含了大都会-哈斯廷采样器用于参数估计.
- 将模型应用于来自纽约市艾滋病毒监测登记处的纵向病毒载荷 (VL) 数据.
主要成果:
- 成功将随机变化点非线性混合效应模型与VL数据相匹配.
- 该模型有效估计了个体特定的趋势和变化点.
- 在现实世界流行病学数据中证明了该模型在处理左边审查的观察结果方面的能力.
结论:
- 提出的未知变化点模型为分析趋势转变的纵向数据提供了一个强大的框架.
- 与大都会-哈斯廷采样器的SAEM算法对于适应复杂的混合效应模型是有效的.
- 这种方法为了解疾病进展和使用HIV病毒载荷数据的干预效应提供了有价值的见解.
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