一个自回归的集成移动平均和长期短期记忆 (ARIM-LSTM) 混合模型,用于多源流行病数据预测
Benfeng Wang1, Yuqi Shen1, Xiaoran Yan2
1College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
这项研究引入了一种ARIMA-LSTM模型与贝叶斯注意力机制,以使用多源数据预测COVID-19病例. 该模型与现有方法相比显示出更高的准确性,有助于预防流行病爆发.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- COVID-19 疫情对全球健康和经济产生了重大影响.
- 短期预测模型对于防止未来的流行病爆发至关重要.
- 准确的预测对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一种新的ARIMA-LSTM模型,用于预测未来的COVID-19病例.
- 通过整合多源数据来提高预测性能.
- 为短期流行病预测提供可靠的工具.
主要方法:
- 使用了一种自回归集成移动平均和长期短期记忆 (ARIMA-LSTM) 模型.
- 使用ARIMA-LSTM独立预测多源数据的趋势.
- 将辅助数据预测集成到案例数据中,使用贝叶斯注意力机制.
主要成果:
- 拟议的ARIMA-LSTM模型表明,预测和实际病例数量之间存在很强的相关性.
- 实验结果验证了模型在真实世界数据集上的有效性.
- 该模型的表现超过了基线和其他最先进的预测方法.
结论:
- 开发的ARIMA-LSTM模型与贝叶斯注意力为COVID-19病例提供了卓越的预测性能.
- 这种方法有效地整合了多个来源的数据,以提高预测准确度.
- 该模型是短期流行病预测和预防策略的宝贵工具.
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