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分析不同时间尺度上的干旱对南非因特定原因死亡率的影响

Coral Salvador^1,2,3, Raquel Nieto¹, Thandi Kapwata^4,5

¹Centro de Investigación Marinã, Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Ourense, Spain.

Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]

|June 10, 2024

概括

南非的干旱与所有原因的死亡率增加有关,特别是呼吸系统问题. 较长的干旱与较高的死亡率有着最强烈的关联,这突显了严重的公共卫生问题.

科学领域:

环境健康环境健康
流行病学流行病学
公共卫生公共卫生

背景情况:

南非因干旱而面临着严重的环境,经济和社会影响.
干旱对南非人类死亡率的具体影响尚不清楚.
澄清与不同干旱类型和人群相关的死亡风险对于了解健康影响至关重要.

研究的目的:

评估不同持续时间的干旱对南非因特定原因死亡率的影响 (2009-2016).
确定与干旱引起的死亡率相关的弱势群体 (按性别和年龄) 和风险变化因素 (城市化,社会经济地位).
分析不同时间尺度上的干旱严重程度和死亡率之间的关联.

主要方法:

采用了两阶段时间序列研究设计.
标准化降水蒸发指数 (SPEI) 计算在1,6,12和15个月,以定义干旱持续时间.
经过调整以平均温度为准的Poisson回归被用于模拟干旱和每周死亡率之间的关联,并对聚合估计进行元回归.

主要成果:

在所有分析的干旱类型和全因死亡率之间观察到积极的关联.
最强烈的关联与长期干旱 (SPEI15:RR 1.098 [1.068, 1.129]) 和呼吸道死亡率 (SPEI15:RR 1.189 [1.14, 1.241]) 有关.
根据年龄的差异性脆弱性的迹象被注意到 (年轻人对短期干旱,老年人对中长期干旱,儿童对非常长期干旱),尽管在统计学上并不显著.

结论:

干旱,特别是长期干旱,与南非的死亡率增加有关.
呼吸道死亡率与干旱事件有着特别强烈的联系.
需要进一步的研究来证实城市化和社会经济因素作为干旱相关健康结果的风险修饰因素的作用.

关键词:

斯佩伊 (SPEI) 是一个名为斯佩伊 (SPEI) 的国家.南非南非南非特定原因死亡率干旱干旱干旱干旱脆弱性评估评估脆弱性的评估

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