预测中国高中学生超重的开始:在为期一年的前性队列研究中使用机器学习方法
Zikang Zhang1,2, Wei Peng1,3, Shaoming Sun4,5
1Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, 230031, PR China.
Endocrine
|June 10, 2024
概括
机器学习使用个人数据准确地预测青少年超重的发病情况. 轻度渐变增强机 (LGBM) 模型表现出高性能,为儿童肥胖症管理提供了新的策略.
科学领域:
- 青少年健康 青少年健康
- 机器学习在医疗保健中的应用
- 对肥胖的预测建模.
背景情况:
- 青少年超重是一个日益严重的公共卫生问题.
- 早期预测对于及时干预至关重要.
- 利用可访问的个人信息进行预测是具有成本效益的.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估用于预测青少年 (14-17岁) 超重发作的机器学习模型.
- 识别导致超重发展的关键个人因素.
- 解释模型预测以获得可操作的见解.
主要方法:
- 这是一项为期一年的前性队列研究,涉及1,241名青少年.
- 通过人类计量测量和问卷收集数据.
- 开发六个机器学习模型,包括光梯度增强机 (LGBM).
- 谢普利增量解释 (SHAP) 用于模型解释.
主要成果:
- 16.4%的青少年在一年内患有超重.
- 该LGBM模型实现了高精度 (0.956) 和AUC (0.961).
- 一组最小的11个特征保持了模型性能稳定性.
- 过量采样技术显著提高了模型的有效性.
结论:
- 容易获得的个人信息可以准确地预测青少年的超重发作.
- 该LGBM模型显示出卓越的预测性能.
- 模型解释性为青少年超重/肥胖管理提供了新的策略.
相关概念视频
Regression Toward the Mean
6.3K
Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when...
6.3K
Longitudinal Research
11.9K
Sometimes we want to see how people change over time, as in studies of human development and lifespan. When we test the same group of individuals repeatedly over an extended period of time, we are conducting longitudinal research. Longitudinal research is a research design in which data-gathering is administered repeatedly over an extended period of time. For example, we may survey a group of individuals about their dietary habits at age 20, retest them a decade later at age 30, and then again...
11.9K
Longitudinal Studies
156
Longitudinal studies are also widely used in other medical and social science fields. For instance, in cardiovascular research, they can monitor patients' health over decades to identify risk factors for heart disease, such as high cholesterol or smoking, and evaluate the long-term effectiveness of preventive measures. Similarly, in mental health studies, researchers might follow individuals from adolescence into adulthood to understand the development and progression of conditions like...
156


