在美国,癌症发病率趋势在连续的社会世代
Philip S Rosenberg1, Adalberto Miranda-Filho1
1Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Biostatistics Branch, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.
JAMA network open
|June 10, 2024
概括
年轻一代的癌症发病率正在上升,X一代的许多癌症发病率高于婴儿潮一代. 这些趋势表明,癌症发病率在未来几十年内将持续高.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 美国年轻人中癌症发病率正在增加.
- 根据出生年份的癌症模式趋势需要进一步调查.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计癌症发病率的趋势,跨越连续的社会世代.
- 为了比较X世代和婴儿潮一代之间的癌症模式.
主要方法:
- 使用了监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库 (1992-2018).
- 雇佣的阶层特定的半参数年龄时期队列 (SAGE) 模型.
- 计算了1908年至1983年出生队列的拟合队列模式 (FCP) 和发病率比率 (IRR).
主要成果:
- 与婴儿潮一代相比,X一代的癌症发病率显著增加,甲状腺,脏,直肠,子宫体,结肠,胰腺癌,非霍奇金淋巴瘤和女性白血病.
- 十代男性的甲状腺,脏,直肠,结肠癌,前列腺癌和白血病的发病率也增加了.
- 妇女的肺癌和宫癌,男性的肺癌,肝癌,胆囊癌和非霍奇金淋巴瘤的病例有所减少.
结论:
- 十代人可能面临比前几代人更高的人均癌症发病率的增加.
- 虽然肺癌和子宫癌等某些癌症的发病率下降,但由于其他癌症类型的增加,整体发病率可能仍然很高.
- 预计的癌症发病率可能会在几十年内保持较高.
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