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开发和验证神经外科术术后内感染预测模型,并进行风险因素分析

Jun Nie¹, Weiguang Zhang¹, Hongyu Zhang¹

¹Department of Neurosurgery, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China.

World neurosurgery

|June 10, 2024

概括

这项研究开发了一种名图,用于预测神经外科后内感染,改善早期诊断. 该模型使用七个风险因素来准确预测神经外科患者的感染.

科学领域:

神经外科神经外科
传染性疾病传染性疾病
医学诊断医学诊断医学诊断

背景情况:

目前神经外科术后内感染的诊断依赖于脑脊液 (CSF) 的细菌培养.
脊髓培养是耗时的,检测率低,容易受到外部因素的影响,阻碍了早期诊断.

研究的目的:

为预测神经外科术后内感染的风险构建了一个名图模型.
为早期诊断和治疗内感染提供基础.

主要方法:

对神经外科术后患者数据的回顾分析 (2019年1月 - 2023年9月).
在培训队列上使用最少绝对收缩和选择操作员物流回归的编号表的开发.
用接收器操作特征曲线,校准图表和决策曲线分析验证模型的区分能力,校准和临床效用.

主要成果:

确定了7个独立的风险因素:术后外部排水的持续时间,持续的发烧,中枢神经液,中枢神经液压力,中枢神经液总蛋白质,中枢神经液葡萄糖和术后血清白蛋白.
命名图实现了接收器操作特征曲线下的面积,在培训队列中为0.868和内部验证队列中为0.900.
校准和决策曲线分析证实了该模型的高精度和临床益处.

结论:

成功开发了一种用于预测术后内感染的新型名图.
诺米图表表现出卓越的预测性能,并作为早期诊断的务实工具.
这种工具有助于及时干预神经外科手术后的内感染.

关键词:

中枢神经系统感染.内感染内感染神经外科神经外科诺莫格拉姆模型的模型风险因素风险因素

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