从虚假的安全感到不确定性下的弹性
Matti T J Heino1,2, Daniele Proverbio3, Kaisa Saurio1
1Faculty of Social Sciences, Unit of Social Research, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland.
Frontiers in psychology
|June 11, 2024
概括
导航复杂的系统需要考虑非线性变化和"黑天"事件. 这项研究提出了一个吸引力景观框架,以改善决策,增强性和减轻极端风险.
科学领域:
- 复杂系统科学 复杂系统科学
- 心理学科学 心理学科学
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 传统的决策通常假定稳定性,忽视非线性变化和"黑天"事件,导致天真的优化和极端风险.
- 损失厌恶,在稳定的环境中的认知偏见,当灾难性失败可能发生时,可以成为一种适应式启发式.
研究的目的:
- 倡导将非线性变革纳入决策过程,通过整合来自复杂系统和心理学科学的见解.
- 确定传统风险评估中的盲点,并制定与环境相关的风险减轻策略.
- 提出一个新的框架,使用吸引器景观来可视化和解释复杂的系统动态.
主要方法:
- 利用吸引力景观来建模复杂的系统动态,识别吸引力 (稳定状态) 和临界点 (变化值).
- 开发四种通用吸引力景观类型,作为风险和机会分析的决策环境.
- 综合复杂系统和心理学科学的原则,以告知风险评估和战略选择.
主要成果:
- 吸引力景观框架提供了一个新的可视化工具,用于理解系统动态和潜在的转变.
- 四种不同的景观类型提供了评估风险和机遇的具体背景.
- 澄清何时优先考虑特定策略,如优化,风险减轻,勘探或稳定,基于已识别的景观.
结论:
- 根据复杂的系统思维和心理洞察力进行环境适当的决策,对于提高系统弹性至关重要.
- 吸引力景观框架有助于通过承认和准备非线性变化和潜在的临界点来减轻极端风险.
- 采用这种框架可以在面对不确定性和复杂性时,带来更强大和更适应性的战略.
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