在气候变化下的"粮食换绿"计划中,粮食供应与土壤保护之间的权衡:三峡水库地区的案例研究
Xiao Chen1, Zhibang Luo1, Zhen Wang1
1College of Resources and Environment, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China.
The Science of the total environment
|June 11, 2024
概括
谷物换绿计划 (GGP) 显著减少了土壤侵蚀,但影响了谷物供应. 在高排放场景下,收益最大,而权衡因收入水平而异.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 生态系统恢复生态效益和谷物供应成本之间的权衡对政策至关重要.
- 气候变化使这些权衡变得复杂,因为它改变了空间上的收益和成本.
- 中国的谷物换绿计划 (GGP) 为评估这些动态提供了一个大规模的案例研究.
研究的目的:
- 量化GGP在三峡水库 (TGR) 地区的土壤保护效益和谷物供应成本之间的权衡.
- 在不同的气候和社会经济情景下模拟未来的谷物供应和土壤侵蚀.
- 分析这些权衡在不同的收入和排放路径中如何变化.
主要方法:
- 利用作物环境资源合成 (CERES) -作物模型进行粮食供应模拟.
- 使用未来土地使用模拟 (FLUS) 进行土地使用变化.
- 应用了修订后的普遍土壤损失方程 (RUSLE) 进行土壤侵蚀评估.
- 将这些模型整合到SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5场景 (2021-2050) 的项目影响中.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,GGP的实施将使土壤侵蚀减少2.475.68万,同时谷物产量减少130,277660,279.
- SSP5-8.5情景 (最高降水量) 显示了最大的土壤保护效益,降低了侵蚀2.555.68万.
- 与高收入低排放场景相比,在低收入高排放场景 (更大的侵蚀控制,更少的谷物供应影响) 中,权衡更有利.
结论:
- 在TGR地区,GGP提供了实质性的土壤保护效益,但对谷物生产产生了可量化的成本.
- 气候和社会经济情景显著影响这些权衡的规模.
- 关于生态系统恢复的政策决策必须考虑不同的区域背景和社会经济路径,以优化结果.
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