适应性采样方法用于监测低风险路径,监测资源有限
Thao P Le1,2,3, Thomas K Waring1,2,3, Howard Bondell2,3
1The Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
概括
全球化增加了害虫和疾病的贸易风险. 一种新方法通过专注于风险值而不是精确估计,有效地监测低风险路径,需要更少的样本进行生物安全.
科学领域:
- 生物安全和国际贸易
- 风险评估和风险管理
- 植物卫生风险分析分析
背景情况:
- 由于害虫,杂草,疾病和病原体的流动增加,国际贸易的增长带来了生物安全挑战.
- 目前的检查策略优先考虑高风险项目,但低风险途径也需要监控以防止引入.
- 估计非常低的风险往往需要广泛的抽样,这是资源密集型的,对于有限的检查预算来说不切实际.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的风险评估方法,用于监测低风险的贸易途径.
- 为有效分配有限的检查资源提供一个框架.
- 为了能够检测生物安全风险水平的重大变化.
主要方法:
- 引入基于值的风险评估方法.
- 专注于确定风险是否低于预定义的值,而不是精确量化风险.
- 适用于具有有限检查资源的低风险贸易通道.
主要成果:
- 与传统的风险估计技术相比,提出的方法需要更少的样本.
- 该方法有效地确定生物安全风险是否仍低于可接受的值.
- 该方法能够检测随着时间的推移风险水平的显著变化.
结论:
- 基于值的方法为监测低风险贸易路径提供了更有效和更有效的策略.
- 这种方法有助于监管机构优化检查工作的分配.
- 它提供了强有力的证据来维持和验证贸易路线的低风险状态.
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