文化和气候强迫之间的相同步
Axel Timmermann1,2, Abdul Wasay1,2, Pasquale Raia3
1IBS Center for Climate Physics , Busan, South Korea.
Proceedings. Biological sciences
|June 12, 2024
概括
人类的文化创新推动了人口增长和资源枯竭. 一个模型表明,这可能导致繁荣/衰退周期和潜在的崩,特别是随着气候变化.
科学领域:
- 人类学是人类学.
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 人类的文化创新在历史上提高了生存和适应.
- 这导致了人口增长,累积的文化学习和资源枯竭.
- 人类世可能会看到资源下降和行星边界的超越,可能会扭转人口增长.
研究的目的:
- 为了建模文化学习,人口增长和资源枯竭的结合动态.
- 调查环境变化和气候强迫对这些动态的影响.
- 评估人类人口的长期性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个简单的随机消费者/资源数学模型.
- 模拟人口和资源的繁荣/衰退周期.
- 将周期性气候强迫纳入模型.
主要成果:
- 没有气候强迫,缓慢的资源回收预测了长期的全球人口崩.
- 随着气候强迫,文化创新和人口增长可以与气候非线性同步.
- 模型模拟了从自给自足到资源开发和衰退的繁荣/衰退周期.
结论:
- 由文化创新驱动的社会人口学反循环可能导致不可持续的资源开发.
- 气候强迫可以与文化和人口动态相互作用,可能导致同步崩.
- 这些发现与了解过去的人类学记录和未来人类弹性有关.
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