不断发展的流行病学网络的转折点:机器学习辅助,数据驱动的有效建模
Nikolaos Evangelou1, Tianqi Cui1, Juan M Bello-Rivas1
1Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21218, USA.
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|June 12, 2024
概括
这项研究使用机器学习来模拟适应性流行病学网络中的临界点. 它确定了一种新型有效的随机微分方程,揭示了亚临界的霍夫分叉和罕见的大集体振荡.
科学领域:
- 复杂的系统复杂的系统.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 网络科学 网络科学
背景情况:
- 适应性流行病学网络表现出复杂的动态,包括临界点.
- 了解这些临界点对于预测疾病传播和网络行为至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用数据驱动方法研究适应性易感-感染-易感 (SIS) 网络中的转折点集体动态.
- 确定一个有效的随机微分方程 (eSDE),以捕捉网络的粗粒度行为.
主要方法:
- 采用深度学习的ResNet架构,灵感来自数值随机集成器来识别eSDE.
- 从eSDE的漂移术语构建了一个近似的有效分叉图.
- 利用多元学习技术,特别是扩散地图,用于数据驱动的可观测识别.
主要成果:
- 确定了一个取决于参数的eSDE,捕捉网络的动态.
- 观察到一个亚临界的霍夫分支,导致由罕见的大幅度集体振荡特征的临界点行为.
- 成功识别了集体SDE,并使用数据驱动的粗观测结果进行了罕见事件计算.
结论:
- 该研究揭示了一个临界以下的Hopf分叉作为适应性SIS网络转折点的机制.
- 开发的机器学习框架有效地模拟复杂的动态和倾斜现象.
- 该方法广泛适用于其他表现出临界点行为的复杂动态系统.
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