关于防止1起自杀事件所需的极端风险保护令数量的最新估计
Matthew Miller1, Yifan Zhang2, David M Studdert2,3
1Department of Health Sciences, Bouvé College of Health Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts.
JAMA network open
|June 12, 2024
概括
极端风险保护令 (ERPO) 有助于预防自杀. 这项研究发现,每22个ERPO发布,就有1起自杀事件被防止,这突显了它们在减少枪支相关死亡的有效性.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 极端风险保护令 (ERPO) 允许法院暂时从被认为对自己或他人构成危险的个人手中移除枪支.
- 以前的估计表明,每10个ERPO中就有1个预防自杀,但这取决于关于自杀企图中使用枪支的假设.
研究的目的:
- 实证地估计预防一个自杀所需的ERPO数量.
- 根据真实世界的数据,更新ERPO治疗所需数量 (NNT).
主要方法:
- 一项队列研究分析了加利福尼亚州手枪所有权和自杀死亡率数据 (2004-2015年).
- 来自康涅狄格州ERPO受访者 (1999-2013) 的方法特定的自杀数据被用于估计反事实结果.
- 数据分析是在2023年12月进行的.
主要成果:
- 在2004年至2015年期间,在加利福尼亚州有1216名手枪所有者因自杀而死亡.
- 在男性手枪所有者中,枪支被用于28%的自杀企图,而药物中毒被用于54%的自杀企图.
- 据估计,每22个ERPO发布,就有1起自杀事件被阻止.
结论:
- 在高风险人群中,ERPO是预防死亡的重要工具.
- 该研究提供了关于ERPO在预防自杀方面的有效性最新证据.
- 调查结果表明,需要治疗的人数比以前估计的要高,这凸显了ERPO实施的重要性.
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