我们如何量化,解释和应用神经网络预测的复杂土壤地图的不确定性?
Kerstin Rau1, Katharina Eggensperger2, Frank Schneider3
1Department of Geoscience, University of Tübingen, Rümelinstraße 19-23, Tübingen 72070, Baden-Württemberg, Germany; Cluster of Excellence Machine Learning: New Perspectives for Sciene, University of Tübingen, Maria-von-Linden-Straße 6, Tübingen 72076, Baden-Württemberg, Germany; Tübingen AI Center, Maria-von-Linden-Straße 6, Tübingen 72076, Baden-Württemberg, Germany.
The Science of the total environment
|June 12, 2024
概括
人工神经网络 (ANN) 可以预测土壤地图,但往往缺乏不确定性量化. 贝叶斯深度学习通过提供现实的不确定性来改善ANN,提高了土壤分类可靠性.
科学领域:
- 地质科学 地质科学
- 人工智能的人工智能
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 人工神经网络 (ANN) 是分析大型数据集的强大工具,包括土壤地图预测.
- 当前的ANN往往缺乏可解释的不确定性量化,并且在训练数据有限的领域表现出过度自信.
- 预测土壤地图对于政府机构,建筑和农业至关重要,但传统的现场工作是昂贵和耗时的.
研究的目的:
- 为了应对不确定性量化和过度信任ANN在土壤分类方面的挑战.
- 探索贝叶斯深度学习的应用,特别是最后层拉普拉斯近似,以实现更可靠的土壤地图预测.
- 提高ANN在预测土壤类型方面的可解释性和可靠性,特别是在数据稀缺的地区.
主要方法:
- 应用贝叶斯深度学习方法"最后层拉普拉斯近似"来量化深度神经网络中的不确定性.
- 在德国南部的土壤分类中使用了ANN,将特定的土壤区域排除在训练数据之外,以测试预测不确定性.
- 在不同程度的培训数据支持领域评估了模型的性能和不确定性估计.
主要成果:
- 贝叶斯的深度学习方法成功地量化了预测不确定性,而不会影响预测的准确性.
- 该方法纠正了地理位置偏远或训练数据稀缺的地区的过度自信预测.
- 结果强调了不确定性测量对于可靠的ANN解释的必要性,特别是在数据有限的地区.
结论:
- 贝叶斯深度学习为ANN中的不确定性量化提供了一个强大的解决方案,从而实现更可靠的土壤分类.
- 这种方法减轻了对ANN过度信心的问题,并通过确定高度不确定性的领域来识别知识差距.
- 利益相关者可以利用不确定性地图来优先考虑需要进一步调查的地区的数据收集工作,加强土壤科学研究和应用.
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