集成的元启发算法与极端学习机器模型用于河流流量预测
Nguyen Van Thieu1, Ngoc Hung Nguyen2, Mohsen Sherif3,4
1Faculty of Computer Science, PHENIKAA University, Yen Nghia, Ha Dong, Hanoi, 12116, Viet Nam. thieu.nguyenvan@phenikaa-uni.edu.vn.
Scientific reports
|June 12, 2024
概括
新的混合模型将极端学习机器 (ELM) 与数学元启发学相结合,显著改善了河流流量预测. 这些先进的模型为水资源管理和降低洪水风险提供了更高的准确性和稳定性.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 计算智能是一种计算智能.
背景情况:
- 准确的河流流量预测对于水资源规划和洪水管理至关重要.
- 传统的预测模型面临着非线性,随机性和趋同可靠性的挑战.
- 开发强大而准确的流量预测模型是一个持续的科学挑战.
研究的目的:
- 引入和评估用于河流流量预测的新型混合模型.
- 为了比较与各种元启发优化算法集成的极端学习机器 (ELM) 的性能.
- 评估这些混合模型的预测准确性,收性和稳定性.
主要方法:
- 通过将ELM与八个元启发优化算法 (PSS,INFO,RUN等) 结合起来,开发了20个混合模型. ) 的情况.
- 利用尼罗河上的阿斯旺大的流量数据进行模型训练和验证.
- 使用RMSE,R,NSE,MAPE,MAE和KGE等指标对模型性能进行了比较分析.
主要成果:
- 数学启发的元启发模型显示出卓越的预测准确性,收性和稳定性.
- 帕雷托式顺序采样-ELM (PSS-ELM) 模型实现了高性能 (RMSE: 2.0667,R: 0.9374,NSE: 0.8642).
- INFO-ELM和RUN-ELM模型显示出强大的融合和高的Kling-Gupta效率 (0.9113,0.9124).
结论:
- 拟议的混合ELM模型显著提高了河流流量预测能力.
- 这些模型为水资源管理策略和降低风险提供了改进的解决方案.
- 采用这些先进的模型可以导致更有效的资源规划和洪水控制.
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