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通过考虑时间不稳定性和异质性来分析行人事故严重程度
Pingfei Li1,2,3, Chengyi Zhao1, Min Li1
1School of Automobile and Transportation, Xihua University, Chengdu, 610039, China.
Heliyon
|June 13, 2024
概括
随着时间的推移,行人事故的严重程度并不稳定,受到各种因素的影响. 考虑未观察到异质性的模型在事故分析中更好地捕捉到这些复杂的关系.
科学领域:
- 交通安全 交通安全
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 事故分析 事故分析
背景情况:
- 在城市环境中,行人安全是关键问题.
- 了解影响事故严重程度的因素对于有效干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查时间不稳定性和异质性对行人事故严重性的影响.
- 评估影响行人受伤严重程度的因素的时间稳定性.
主要方法:
- 利用了从2018年至2021年期间的48,786份英国行人事故记录.
- 开发了一个具有异质性的随机参数逻辑模型来分析49个事故特征.
- 检查了模型的时间稳定性及其参数.
主要成果:
- 在影响行人事故严重程度的因素中发现了显著的变化和缺乏时间稳定性.
- 概率测试证实了未观察到的异质性的影响.
结论:
- 行人事故的严重程度是动态的,并受到随时间变化的因素的影响.
- 纳入未观察到异质性的模型对于准确的行人事故严重性分析至关重要.
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