加纳结核病的时空特征
Abdul-Karim Iddrisu1, Emmanuel A Amikiya2, Francis Kwame Bukari1
1Mathematics and Staistics, University of Energy and Natural Resources, Sunyani, Brong Ahafo, +233, Ghana.
F1000Research
|June 13, 2024
概括
加纳的结核病 (TB) 热点是使用贝叶斯模型识别的,揭示了结核病治愈率,艾滋病毒流行率和识字率显著预测风险. 向这些热点分配资源和控制关键因素对于减少结核病病例至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 结核病 (TB) 是全球主要的死亡原因,也是加纳的主要死亡原因.
- 现有的文献缺乏使用先进的统计模型对加纳的空间和空间时间结核病风险动态进行全面分析.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用贝叶斯等级模型,确定加纳的结核病 (TB) 热点.
- 分析了整个加纳行政区的结核病风险的空间和空间时间分布.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自加纳卫生服务和国家结核病计划 (2008-2017) 的结核病数据.
- 使用贝叶斯模型框架估计的空间和空间-时间结核病相对风险.
- 通过风险地图可视化结核病热点,并使用R版本4.3.2.2.进行分析.
主要成果:
- 结核病风险的重要预测因素包括结核病治愈率,结核病成功率,有关结核病的知识,艾滋病毒的流行率,识字率和收入水平.
- 在北部地区和南部地区 (东部和大阿克拉) 内的特定地区观察到结核病感染风险增加.
- 时空结核病风险集中在南部地区,在邻近地区观察到结核病的聚集.
结论:
- 影响加纳结核病风险的关键因素是结核病治愈率,结核病成功率,知识,艾滋病毒流行率,识字率和收入.
- 结核病风险在南方区域的空间集中,在邻近地区的集群中,突出了针对性干预的需要.
- 有效的结核病控制需要将战略资源分配到已识别的热点,并实施措施以减轻重大风险预测因素.
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