碳交易,绿色证书交易和电力市场的动态相互作用:从系统动态建模的洞察力
Wei Zhang1, Chao Ji1, Yongwei Liu2
1Anhui Power Exchange Center Company Limited, Hefei, China.
PloS one
|June 13, 2024
概括
这项研究模拟了碳交易 (CT) 和绿色证书 (TGC) 与电力市场的交易动态. 它揭示了这些相互关联的市场如何影响碳,证书和电力价格,以实现可持续的能源转型.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 能源市场分析 能源市场分析
- 系统动力学建模系统动力学建模
背景情况:
- 越来越需要减少碳排放和整合可再生能源.
- 互联的能源和环境市场的复杂性.
- 了解市场动态对于制定政策的重要性.
研究的目的:
- 分析碳交易 (CT),可交易绿色证书 (TGC) 交易和电力市场的相互联系动态.
- 通过系统动态 (SD) 建模,探索这些市场之间的结构关系和反机制.
- 为市场价格波动和交易量提供定量见解.
主要方法:
- 系统动力学 (SD) 建模方法.
- 使用微分方程与时间延迟进行分析.
- 模拟的多市场合机制.
主要成果:
- 确定了碳价格,绿色证书价格和电价之间的复杂相互作用.
- 在三大市场的合下,碳价格稳定在150元/左右.
- 绿色证书价格达到0.45元/千瓦时的峰值,影响了电价 (0.33-1.09元/千瓦时).
结论:
- 该研究提供了对结合碳,绿色证书和电力市场价格动态的定量理解.
- 为决策者和利益相关者提供有价值的见解,帮助他们制定有效的减排战略.
- 强调了解多市场合对于实现可持续能源转型和减缓气候变化的重要性.
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