在不确定性下,对长江三角洲碳峰值的区域政策选择
Lianbiao Cui1, Jiaxue Wang1, Xueli Chen2
1School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu, 233030, China.
Journal of environmental management
|June 13, 2024
概括
经济不确定性对长江三角洲 (YRD) 的碳排放有重大影响. 有针对性的减排可以帮助YRD地区到2025年实现其碳峰值.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 区域经济学 区域经济学
背景情况:
- 长江三角洲 (YRD) 对中国的碳峰值目标至关重要.
- 经济增长,能源使用和人口的不确定性对实现区域碳中和性构成挑战.
- 了解碳排放轨迹的区域异质性对于有效的政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析YRD中碳排放的驱动因素.
- 探索动态碳峰值路径,考虑到区域异质性和不确定性.
- 为制定有针对性的碳峰值政策提供见解.
主要方法:
- 利用通用的Divisia指数方法来识别碳排放的驱动因素.
- 采用蒙特卡洛模拟和场景分析来进行动态勘探.
- 在各种不确定性条件下,预测的碳峰值路径从2022年到2035年.
主要成果:
- 经济不确定性成为碳排放最重要的驱动因素.
- 减少能源强度和改变能源结构是减少碳排放的关键.
- 碳峰值的区域异质性是显而易见的;基线情景预测2035年之前不会达到峰值.
结论:
- 在增强的减排 (EE) 场景下,整个YRD地区可能在2025年达到峰值.
- 在低碳情景中,江和上海等特定地区可能在2030年之前达到峰值.
- 根据EE情景,安预计将在2030年达到峰值,这凸显了针对性政策的必要性.
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