三种入侵性农业害虫在中国的潜在分布在气候变化下
Yanjing Zhang1, Yaqiong Wan1, Chenbin Wang1
1State Key Laboratory of Environmental Protection and Biosafety, Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Environmental Environment, 8 Jiangwangmiao Road, Nanjing, 210042, China.
Scientific reports
|June 13, 2024
概括
像香船长,红棕虫和子虫这样的侵入性昆虫害虫威胁着中国.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 侵袭性物种管理 侵袭性物种管理
- 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 侵入性昆虫害虫对生物多样性,生态系统服务和农业经济产生重大影响.
- 香船长 (Erionota torus Evans),红棕虫 (Rhynchophorus ferrugineus) 和子虫 (Opisina arenosella Walker) 是影响中国香,棕和子种植的主要入侵害虫.
- 了解它们的分布动态对于有效的害虫管理和减轻经济损失至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 利用气候变化预测,模拟中国三种入侵性昆虫害虫的当前和未来分布动态.
- 确定影响这些入侵物种分布的关键环境和人类干扰因素.
- 为战略空间管理和早期预防入侵性昆虫害虫提供见解.
主要方法:
- 利用最大 (Maxent) 模型与选的发生数据来预测物种分布.
- 根据CMIP6的两个共享社会经济路径 (SSP:126和585),根据当前和未来的气候场景 (2050年代,2070年代,2090年代) 模拟息地分布.
- 分析了气候变量 (温度,降雨) 和人类干扰因素 (人口密度,人类影响指数) 的影响.
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型的预测显示,在当前和未来的气候条件下,所有物种的高精度 (AUC > 0.92).
- 适合息地区域显示出不同的反应:E. torus Evans在轻微的变化下保持稳定,R. ferrugineus显示出整体收缩,O. arenosella显示出显著的扩张,特别是在SSP585.
- 息地中心体预计将向南转移R. ferrugineus和E. torus Evans,向北转移O. arenosella,温度,降水和人类干扰被确定为关键驱动因素.
结论:
- 气候变化和人类干扰显著影响了中国入侵性昆虫害虫的分布.
- 预计的息地转移突出显示了未来感染的高风险地区,需要适应性管理策略.
- 该研究提供了必要的,及时的科学证据,用于早期检测,快速反应和有效控制这些入侵物种.
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