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开发和验证一种可解释的模型,用于预测护理环境中的败血症死亡率
Young Seok Lee1, Seungbong Han2, Ye Eun Lee2
1Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University Guro Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Scientific reports
|June 13, 2024
概括
开发了一种新的败血症死亡率预测模型,并为所有护理环境验证. 这个用户友好的工具准确地预测了社区和医院获得的败血症的28天死亡率.
科学领域:
- 关键护理医学 关键护理医学
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 现有的死亡风险预后模型可能无法充分满足败血症患者的特定需求.
- 败血症仍然是死亡的一个重要原因,需要改善及时干预的预测工具.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种新的,用户友好的预测模型,用于毒症患者的28天死亡率.
- 创建适用于所有护理环境以及社区和医院获得的败血症的多功能模型.
主要方法:
- 通过使用来自多家医院的大数据集来推导和验证点系统模型.
- 导出数据集:来自20家医院的7436名患者 (2019年9月至2021年12月).
- 验证数据集:来自15家医院的2284名患者 (2022年1月至2022年12月).
主要成果:
- 开发的点系统模型在预测28天败血症死亡率方面表现令人满意.
- 社区获得性败血症曲线下的面积 (AUC):0.779 (衍生) 和0.787 (验证).
- 在医院获得的败血症的AUC:0.768 (衍生) 和0.729 (验证).
结论:
- 新的预测模型提供了一种用户友好和准确的方法来预测与败血症相关的28天死亡率.
- 该模型对不同患者群体 (社区和医院获得的败血症) 的适用性提高了其临床实用性.
- 可访问的在线计算器可用于预测模型的实际实施.
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