1980年至2019年中国热带气旋过程中的降雨变化特征
Guangran Zhai1,2,3,4, Wei Xu5,6,7,8, Peng Su1,2,3,4
1Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
Scientific reports
|June 13, 2024
概括
热带气旋降雨模式正在发生变化. 虽然峰值降水量保持稳定,但总降水量正在增加,特别是在落地前,影响沿海地区.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 热带气旋 (TC) 及其强烈的降雨带来了重大自然灾害风险.
- 了解热带气旋降水 (TCP) 特性对于TC研究和灾害准备至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 检查TC登陆前后降水率和峰值降水水平的变化.
- 在40年的时间里 (1980-2019) 分析TCP的趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自国际气候管理最佳轨道档案的TC轨道数据.
- 采用了1980-2019年多个来源的加权总体降水数据.
- 分析了与TC登陆相对的降水变化和峰值水平.
主要成果:
- 降水在登陆之前通常是稳定的,在登陆期间达到顶峰,之后略有下降.
- 在降落之前降水变化的速度从1980年到2019年显著增加.
- 2000年以后,降水变化的速度在落地后显著下降.
- 峰值降水水平保持不变,但总降水量呈现上升趋势,特别是在特定的沿海地区.
结论:
- 结果澄清了TC过程,并为区域TCP建模提供了有价值的数据.
- 观察到的降水变化的趋势突出显示了TC行为和相关风险的演变.
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