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在社区中开发和验证慢性病中跌倒事故预测模型
Pinli Lin1, Guang Lin2, Biyu Wan3
1The Second Clinical College of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, China.
Frontiers in public health
|June 14, 2024
概括
患有慢性病 (CKD) 的人面临高跌倒风险. 这项研究开发了一个经过验证的预测模型,使用移动性和抑郁症等因素来评估社区住宿的CKD患者的跌倒风险.
科学领域:
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學專業.
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 慢性病 (CKD) 与跌倒事故的风险增加有关.
- 布对患有CKD的个体的健康和独立性构成重大威胁.
- 基于社区的防摔策略对这一群体至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个预测模型,用于社区居住的个体中患有CKD的跌倒事故.
- 确定与CKD人口下降相关的关键风险因素.
- 为早期风险评估和干预提供一个工具.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自中国健康与退休长度研究 (CHARLS) 的数据.
- 使用后勤回归和LASSO回归用于预测器选择.
- 构建了一个基于nomogram的预测模型,并使用ROC曲线,校准曲线和决策曲线分析验证了其性能.
主要成果:
- 包括911名参与者;30.0%经历过跌倒事故.
- 确定了跌倒史,BMI,运动能力,握手和抑郁症作为重要的预测因素.
- 开发的模型表现出良好的预测性能,AUC为0.724.
结论:
- 成功开发了一种有效的预测模型,用于社区住宿的CKD患者的跌倒风险.
- 该模型结合了易于评估的因素,促进了实际应用.
- 这种工具可以帮助识别高风险个人,以进行有针对性的防摔干预.
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