在西班牙,烟草消费与肺癌死亡率之间的时间依赖
Carla Guerra-Tort1, Esther López-Vizcaíno2, María Isolina Santiago-Pérez3
1Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain.
Archivos de bronconeumologia
|June 14, 2024
概括
西班牙的肺癌死亡率受到吸烟患病率的显著影响,显著的15年滞后. 了解这种时间关系对于预测未来肺癌趋势至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 癌症研究 癌症研究
背景情况:
- 肺癌是全球癌症死亡的主要原因之一.
- 吸烟是肺癌的主要危险因素.
- 确立吸烟与死亡率之间的时间联系对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定在西班牙的吸烟流行率和肺癌死亡率之间的时间差.
- 使用统计建模量化关系.
主要方法:
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型.
- 分析了吸烟流行率 (1991-2020年) 和肺癌死亡率 (2016-2020年) 的数据.
- 该模型根据性别,年龄和风险人群进行了调整,考虑到长达25年的滞后.
主要成果:
- 在吸烟流行率和肺癌死亡率之间,确定了15年的最佳滞后.
- 吸烟率为71%与15年滞后的最大相对风险为2.9 (95% CI:2.0-4.3) 相关.
- 一个33%的患病率显示了15年滞后的1.8的相对风险.
结论:
- 西班牙肺癌死亡率明显受到15年前的吸烟习惯的影响.
- 监测吸烟流行趋势和滞后时间对于预测肺癌发病率和死亡率至关重要.
- 这种理解有助于制定有针对性的公共卫生战略,以减轻肺癌负担.
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