风险下的快速和缓慢的决策:直觉而不是深思熟虑驱使有利的选择
Aikaterini Voudouri1, Michał Białek2, Wim De Neys1
1Université Paris Cité, LaPsyDÉ, CNRS, F-75005 Paris, France.
Cognition
|June 15, 2024
概括
大多数人避免博的高损失潜力,即使有积极的预期价值. 这项研究表明直观的思考,而不是深思熟虑,驱动了风险决策中的预期价值选择.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 神经科学是一个神经科学.
背景情况:
- 双重流程理论认为,需要深思熟虑来覆盖损失厌恶,并考虑风险决策中的预期价值.
- 损失厌恶偏见往往导致个人避免博的潜在损失,尽管积极的预期价值.
- 在评估预期价值时,直观 (快速) 与深思熟虑 (缓慢) 思维的作用仍在争论中.
研究的目的:
- 调查个人是否可以直观地理解预期价值的好处,而不需要考虑.
- 测试在风险决策场景中,直觉选择是否与深思熟虑的选择保持一致或偏离.
- 在直观预期价值评估的背景下重新评估双重过程理论.
主要方法:
- 采用了两种反应模式,捕捉了最初的直观选择 (时间压力,认知负载) 和最终的深思熟虑的选择.
- 参与者评估假设的注和彩票,在基于预期价值的风险和无损的安全选择之间做出选择.
- 数据分析的重点是直觉和深思熟虑的选择之间的关系,以及与损失厌恶有关的信心水平.
主要成果:
- 参与者主要在直觉和深思熟虑的决策阶段表现出损失厌恶.
- 当经过深思熟虑后做出预期价值选择时,它们通常会被直观的选择所预先做出.
- 失去的个人表现出对预期价值的直观敏感性,这表明选择信心减少.
结论:
- 审议不是做出基于预期价值的风险决策的唯一或主要途径.
- 直观的"快速"思维发挥着重要作用,可能涉及不同直观过程的相互作用.
- 风险决策可能更好地被理解为快速直觉的动态相互作用,而不是简单的快慢二分法.
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