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水的消耗和生物多样性:应对全球紧急事件的反应

Dandan Zhao¹, Junguo Liu², Laixiang Sun³

¹Water & Development Research Group, Department of Built Environment, Aalto University, Espoo 15200, Finland.

Science bulletin

|June 15, 2024

概括

这就是COVID-19大流行.

科学领域:

环境经济学环境经济学
生态建模生态建模
全球供应链分析

背景情况:

2019年新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情迫使全球采取前所未有的封锁措施,大大改变了人类活动,影响了水消耗和生物多样性.
之前对与流行病相关的环境影响的评估缺乏整体的视角,特别是在全球系统的相互联系方面.
了解这些复杂的相互作用对于有效的环境管理和可持续的恢复战略至关重要.

研究的目的:

开发和应用一个新的框架来评估COVID-19封闭措施对淡水消费和生物多样性的多方面的影响.
在各种流行病情景下量化用水和生物多样性压力的特定国家/部门变化.
评估全球供应链在传播这些环境影响中的作用.

主要方法:

将环境扩展的供应受约束的全球多区域输入输出 (MRIO) 模型与驱动器-压力-状态-影响-响应 (DPSIR) 框架集成.
开发反映COVID-19封闭措施及其进展的不同场景.
从2020年到2025年,淡水消耗量化和生物多样性压力变化.

主要成果:

2020年,由于封闭措施,全球用水量平均下降了5.7%,导致生物多样性压力减少了5%.
供应链传播显著放大了这些效应,占水消耗下降的79%和生物多样性压力下降的84%.
预计随着疫苗的推广和社会经济适应,影响将减少,尽管全球相互依存性确保了广泛的影响.

结论:

经过MRIO改进的DPSIR框架有效量化了在重大中断期间全球供应链的环境影响和资源压力.
建议采取当地节水措施,并将水资源纳入流行后恢复计划.
在资源保护方面的持续创新对于在后疫情时代维持环境收益至关重要.

关键词:

生物多样性生物多样性在 COVID-19 疫情中,全球紧急事件全球紧急事件高分辨率的水消耗数据集.通过MRIO增强的DPSIR框架.供应链网络网络的供应链.供应受限的多区域输出输出 (混合MRIO) 模型水与生物多样性的因果关系.

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